Howling...
Forecasting the winner of the World Cup
Last run 18 June 06:52 ET
Spain lead our forecast, the highest of any team.
15.5% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings place Spain clearly ahead. The market sits about 2.5pp below our number, which the analysis prices as a real but modest gap -- not enough to open a negative stance. A scenario where Yamal is benched or pulled was assessed but did not cross the significance threshold, so Spain's rating stands on the underlying squad strength.
Assuming France's market premium partially reflects sentimentFrance earns only the defensible club-quality uplift; the rest of the market premium is treated as sentiment not grounded in measurable squad quality. Built on Saliba fitness confirmation removing collapse risk while leaving the over-pricing question open.
30%
Using our international-results ratingsWeighted match results from internationals, with an England squad-value correction and an Elo-trend discount for Germany. Cannot price bookmaker sentiment on France.
30%
Using the betting market consensusDe-vigged bookmaker consensus after margin removal. France's full premium granted; England squad-value premium retained. Cannot tell if France sentiment is over-extrapolated.
20%
Assuming Portugal's attacking structure is compromisedPortugal's DR Congo draw priced as a cohesion failure affecting the whole attack, not just Ronaldo. Structural drag persists through Group K and into the knockouts under this world.
20%
1 in 1Spain are world champions
Spain lead our forecast, the highest of any team.
15.5% is the weighted average of Spain’s chance of winning the World Cup across 200 simulated draws.
Our international-results ratings place Spain clearly ahead. The market sits about 2.5pp below our number, which the analysis prices as a real but modest gap -- not enough to open a negative stance. A scenario where Yamal is benched or pulled was assessed but did not cross the significance threshold, so Spain's rating stands on the underlying squad strength.
Assuming France's market premium partially reflects sentimentFrance earns only the defensible club-quality uplift; the rest of the market premium is treated as sentiment not grounded in measurable squad quality. Built on Saliba fitness confirmation removing collapse risk while leaving the over-pricing question open.
30%
Using our international-results ratingsWeighted match results from internationals, with an England squad-value correction and an Elo-trend discount for Germany. Cannot price bookmaker sentiment on France.
30%
Using the betting market consensusDe-vigged bookmaker consensus after margin removal. France's full premium granted; England squad-value premium retained. Cannot tell if France sentiment is over-extrapolated.
20%
Assuming Portugal's attacking structure is compromisedPortugal's DR Congo draw priced as a cohesion failure affecting the whole attack, not just Ronaldo. Structural drag persists through Group K and into the knockouts under this world.
20%
